Late picks by Nite Owl Sports
NO over Port – 10:35 E$ST start; see supporting WU below
NO/1Q +3.5 for 3.5 unit POD
NO +11 (-120 odds) for 2.5 units
Supporting WU for picks on NO below
NO ATS picksover over Port- NewOrleans' surprising 7-game cover streak ended with a thud last Wednesday vs.Toronto, but it's worth noting that all of the Hornets' successes intheir recent point spread win streak came on the road, all as dogs.Meanwhile, we're wondering if Blazer HC Nate McMillan might have secondthoughts about his recent lineup switch that put Jamal Crawford in for RayFelton at the starting PG spot; Crawford scored 21 in his second game since theswitch, but the Blazers were never in sync in a 104-95 loss at Denver lastWednesday, their first game after ther break. The Blazers won and covered apair of similar-looking games (84-77 and 94-86) at New Orleans earlier thisseason when the Hornets were floundering, but under-rated andunder-appreciated Hornets’ HC Monty Williams seems to uncovered somecombinations that are working in recent weeks, with Chris Kaman'sreintroduction to active duty and ex-Maryland G Greivis Vazquez, MarcoBelinelli, and Jarrett Jack emerging as viable combinations in the back court.And while long-armed and quick Trevor Ariza, not only an importantcomponent of the offense (with 12 ppg, 6 rpg and 3.5 apg so far TY) but alsothe team’s best defender, missed the last two gamesdue to an undisclosed illness, he is with the team in Portland and expectedto return to the line-up tonite against the Trail Blazers. Ad while Portstarted out the year as the best home team in the NBA through January, thingswent south for their home prowess last month, and the are now a crappy 2-6 SUin their last 8 home games, including a 15 point home beating by thelowly Wash Wiz, with one of the two wins coming against SA’s second team,as Spurs’ Coach “Pops” abruptly decided before the game to rest several of hiskey players for that joke of a game (no doubt after he placed his action onPortland/LOL), with both Parker and Duncan among those rested.
Again,despite their ugly 9-28 SU record, including 5-12 on the road, the NOHornets have been lethal as road dogs ATS TY, having stung book makers with a 12-4ATS mark this season in that preferred role, including 9-3 ATS as road dogsof +10>, which they are here tonite in Portland. And we like themnot only on the full game line at +10.5 (or preferably at +11 at-120 odds) butalso at +6 on the 1H line, but our strongest pick on this game is NOat +3.5 on the 1Q line, a 3.5 unit POD.
Andour pick specific support for the 1Q ATS pick on NO is as follows. In their12 games as double digit road dogs, NO is 8-4 ATS vs the 1Q line, with anaverage score of tie after 1Q, which is quite good, considering theirrecord and that all 12 of those games were roadies against playoff caliberteams. They are also good in that mode on the 1H line (8-4 with an average HTdeficit of 1 point), and vs the FG line, at 9-3 ATS with an average MOL of just4 points, including an easy ATS cover with a 4 point loss in Chicago in theirlast roadie. But what convinced to use our last “shot” on this 1Q pick is howincredibly BAD Portland has been vs the 1Q line, both in all games asdouble digit home faves (0-5 ATS with an average deficit of one point after1Q) and in their last 3 games as home faves, all against teams a bit betterthan NO (and thus a single digit faves), where they were 1-2 vs the 1Q line,making them 1-7 ATS vs the 1Q line in those 8 combined HGs, with an averagedeficit of 1.5 points after 1Q. So combining that with NO’s 8-4 ATS vs the1Q line and averaging the 1Q scores for both teams in those games not onlygives NO a commanding 15-5-1 ATS edge over Portland vs the 1Q line butalso projects a one point Hornets lead after 1Q, which will easily getus the money at +3.5 ATS. So based mostly on that pick specific support, it’s NOat +3.5 on the 1Q line for a 3.5 unit POD.
